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March 2008

March 20, 2008

Senior-Housing Stocks Have Fallen Hard. WIll They Go Back Up Soon?

An article in Barrons titled Demographics Spell Rebound For Senior-Housing Stocks  discusses how because older people often fund the move into retirement facilities through the sale of their homes, worries have increased that a deepening housing slump will force seniors to delay -- or even call off -- the move into senior housing - and that might hurt these companies' occupancy rates and margins.

My take is this is a short sighted view. The demand for senior housing will increase dramatically over the next few decades even if it is in a slump now.

However, that is no guarantee that all these senior housing stocks will make good investments. There is not always a correlation between market growth/health and the stock price of companies competing in the respective market.  Even if demand sours, factors like quality of the product and quality of the management ultimately determine a stock price. Seems obvious but I'm continually amazed at how often this is ignored.

Anyway, good article. Access via the above link.    

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